Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 18.567827 21.500312 24.676907 28.364985 32.520079 37.047316 42.343875
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 14.255215 18.390698 23.286849 29.469379 37.022270 45.900728 57.074399
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.945715 15.543170 21.426242 29.406974 39.836985 52.879456 70.277887
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 9.232451 14.234622 21.070715 30.911791 44.497405 62.344387 87.264869
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 7.703880 12.813251 20.226607 31.480735 47.783522 70.133536 102.583489
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.422280 11.471509 19.217207 31.561533 50.236927 76.829792 116.787119
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.423250 10.360964 18.339407 31.635287 52.557102 83.377930 131.116634
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.032089 10.171922 18.843263 33.832858 58.183659 95.046387 153.539467
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.557638 9.743563 18.871965 35.223343 62.613012 105.166294 174.249367
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.133522 9.326804 18.846210 36.480685 66.877990 115.253757 195.457913
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.592827 8.583865 18.130276 36.442715 68.952139 121.973874 211.772486
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.029126 7.685774 16.996328 35.509700 69.377438 126.000965 223.971250
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.536773 6.858833 15.910390 34.589396 69.825183 130.235041 237.029515
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.231823 6.394745 15.485934 34.879158 72.468821 138.350587 257.022801
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.906834 5.813087 14.730284 34.423760 73.684374 144.072293 273.314449
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.780497 5.701392 14.968896 35.995264 78.831504 156.973554 302.560989
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.600039 5.407531 14.754149 36.585199 82.103722 166.683716 326.715098
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.410110 5.043846 14.322633 36.654626 84.335069 174.608146 348.096623
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.245355 4.713032 13.918218 36.729905 86.564281 182.629522 370.023455
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.220307 4.800650 14.559483 39.225199 93.945402 200.704358 411.033452
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.150841 4.733143 14.795740 40.803318 99.507469 215.590584 446.833461
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.079646 4.644022 14.962629 42.230076 104.839046 230.292402 482.924357
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.957343 4.350184 14.537767 42.186777 106.981585 238.872672 507.898826